Using mathematical models to predict the future of athletics

There are numerous rewards which world class athletes covet in their quests for glory, be they National titles, World Champion status or Olympic Gold. Perhaps one of the top honors, though, is that of the World Record: the symbol and defining mark that the highest level in one's event has been achieved. World records have risen and fallen throughout the history of Track and Field, and the past 2 years have certainly been no exception. In fact, a significant portion of the men's Track marks have been rewritten since 1993. Of current interest are the progressions of the middle distance kings, Hicham El Guerrouj in the 1500m and mile, the ongoing battle for supremacy between Daniel Komen and Haile Gebrselassie, and the unforgettable, unquestionable dominance of Wilson Kipketer in the 800m. At the time of this writing, Maria Mutola has set a new indoor 800m WR, while Komen and Geb are still waging their war of attrition under the roof. The sprint records are yet again on the verge of being knocked down a few notches. Marion Jones has her sights set on Irina Privalova's 60m mark, and is mumbling about 10.5s clockings this summer. Similarly, Maurice Greene's groundbreaking in the indoor sprints, as well as his February 28th 9.99s dash Down Under (the first ever sub-10s clocking on Aussie soil, with a-0.6 m/s wind, no less!), seem to be indicative of the shape of things to come. On this note, we have to ask ourselves: " What are the shape of things to come? ". A record is set, a record falls. Can this process go on indefinitely? It seems obvious to answer 'no' to such a question, but we are then posed with a corollary: exactly how good can we get? The answer to this question has been the subject of various research works over the decades (see the references), and in the following few paragraphs, I'll 1 sum up the findings of one paper which I have found particularly fascintating. in 1989. They posit a mathematical model which reproduces an athlete's power output over a given distance of running, using variables representing various metabolic energy-yielding processes. This is in turn based on a model developed by Arthur Hill way back in the 1920s. Peronnet and Thibault studied variations in the following quantities in athletic performances since the early part of the century: capacity of anaer-obic metabolism (raw …